Kusukela kwaqala ubhubhane, imboni yezohwebo kanye nemboni yezokuthutha ibilokhu isesimweni esibi njalo. Eminyakeni emibili edlule, imithwalo yemikhumbi yanda kakhulu, futhi manje ibonakala sengathi yehla “entengo evamile” yeminyaka emibili edlule, kodwa ingabe imakethe ingabuyela esimweni esijwayelekile?
Idatha
Uhlelo lwakamuva lwezinkomba ezine ezinkulu kakhulu zokuthutha amakhonteyina emhlabeni luqhubekile nokwehla kakhulu:
-I-Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) ime kumaphuzu angu-2562.12, yehle ngamaphuzu angu-285.5. kusukela ngesonto eledlule, ukwehla kwamasonto onke ngo-10.0%, futhi yehle amasonto ayi-13 elandelanayo. Yehle ngo-43.9% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule.
-I-Delury's World Container Freight Index (WCI) yehle amasonto angama-28 elandelana, kanti uhlelo lwakamuva lwehle ngo-5% lwaya ku-US$5,378.68 nge-FEU ngayinye.
-I-Baltic Freight Index (FBX) Global Composite Index ku-US$4,862/FEU, yehle ngo-8% masonto onke.
-I-Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) ye-Ningbo Shipping Exchange ivale ngamaphuzu angu-1,910.9, yehle ngamaphesenti angu-11.6 kusukela ngesonto eledlule.
Umagazini wakamuva we-SCFI (9.9) uqhubeke nokubona ukwehla kwazo zonke izilinganiso ezinkulu zokuthumela.
-Imizila yaseNyakatho Melika: ukusebenza kwemakethe yezokuthutha kwehlulekile ukuthuthuka, izisekelo zokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo zibuthakathaka kakhulu, okuholele ekutheni imakethe iqhubeke nokwehla kwamanani empahla.
-Amanani e-US West ehle afinyelela ku-3,484/FEU esuka ku-$3,959 ngesonto eledlule, ukwehla kwamasonto onke okungu-$475 noma u-12.0%, kanti amanani e-US West afinyelele phansi okusha kusukela ngo-Agasti 2020.
-Amanani e-US East ehle afinyelela ku-$7,767/FEU esuka ku-$8,318 ngesonto eledlule, ehla ngo-$551, noma amaphesenti angu-6.6, njalo ngeviki.
Izizathu
Ngesikhathi sobhubhane, izintambo zokulethwa kwezimpahla zaphazamiseka futhi ezinye izimpahla zanqanyulwa kwamanye amazwe, okwaholela “ekugcineni kwezimpahla” emazweni amaningi, okwaholela ezindleleni zokuthumela eziphezulu ngendlela engavamile ngonyaka odlule.
Kulo nyaka, izingcindezi zokwehla kwamandla emali kwezomnotho womhlaba kanye nokwehla kwesidingo kwenze kwaba nzima ukugaya amasheya ayeqoqwe emakethe ngaphambilini, okubangele ukuthi abathumeli bamazwe aseYurophu nase-United States banciphise noma bakhansele ama-oda ezimpahla, futhi "ukuntuleka kwama-oda" kusakazeka emhlabeni wonke.
UDing Chun, uprofesa e-Institute of World Economics, School of Economics, eFudan University: “Ukwehla kwentengo kubangelwa kakhulu amazinga aphezulu okwehla kwamandla emali eYurophu nase-United States, okwanda ngenxa yezingxabano zezwe, izinkinga zamandla kanye nobhubhane, okubangele ukuncipha okukhulu kwesidingo sokuthunyelwa kwempahla.”
UKang Shuchun, i-CEO ye-China International Shipping Network: “Ukungalingani phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo kuholele ekwehleni kwamanani okuthunyelwa kwezimpahla.”
Umthelela
Ezinkampanini zokuthumela:bebhekene nengcindezi “yokuxoxisana” ngamanani ezinkontileka, futhi bathi bathole izicelo ezivela kubanikazi bezimpahla zokunciphisa amanani ezinkontileka.
Kumabhizinisi asekhaya:UXu Kai, isikhulu esiphezulu solwazi seShanghai International Shipping Research Center, utshele i-Global Times ukuthi ukholelwa ukuthi amazinga okuthumela aphezulu ngendlela engavamile ngonyaka odlule ayengavamile, kanti ukwehla okusheshayo kakhulu kulo nyaka kwakungavamile nakakhulu, futhi kufanele kube ukusabela ngokweqile kwezinkampani zokuthumela ezinguqukweni zemakethe. Ukuze kugcinwe amazinga okulayisha imithwalo yempahla emincane, izinkampani zokuthumela zizama ukusebenzisa amazinga okuthumela njengesizathu sokukhulisa isidingo. Ingqikithi yokwehla kwesidingo sokuthuthwa kwemakethe ukuncipha kwesidingo sokuhweba, kanti isu lokusebenzisa ukwehliswa kwentengo ngeke lilethe noma yisiphi isidingo esisha, kodwa lizoholela ekuncintisaneni okubi kanye nokungahleleki emakethe yasolwandle.
Ukuthunyelwa:Inani elikhulu lemikhumbi emisha eqalwe yizinkampani ezinkulu zokuthutha izimpahla liye landisa igebe phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo. UKang Shuchun uthe amazinga okuthutha aphezulu ngendlela engavamile ngonyaka odlule enza izinkampani eziningi zokuthutha izimpahla zithole imali eningi, kanti ezinye izinkampani ezinkulu zokuthutha izimpahla zifake inzuzo yazo ekwakheni imikhumbi emisha, kanti ngaphambi kobhubhane, umthamo wokuthutha emhlabeni wonke wawusuvele uphakeme kunomthamo. I-Wall Street Journal icaphune iBraemar, inkampani yokubonisana ngamandla kanye nokuthutha izimpahla, ithi uchungechunge lwemikhumbi emisha luzoqaliswa eminyakeni emibili ezayo nokuthi izinga lokukhula kwemikhumbi kulindeleke ukuthi lidlule amaphesenti angu-9 ngonyaka ozayo nango-2024, kanti izinga lokukhula konyaka nonyaka lomthamo wokuthutha izimpahla ezisemathinini lizoba libi ngo-2023, okuzoqhubeka nokukhulisa ukungalingani phakathi komthamo womhlaba kanye nomthamo.
Isiphetho
Ingqikithi yesidingo sokuhamba kancane kwemakethe ukuncipha kwesidingo sokuhweba, ukusebenzisa isu lokunciphisa intengo ngeke kulethe noma yisiphi isidingo esisha, kodwa kuzoholela ekuncintisaneni okunonya futhi kuphazamise ukuhleleka kwemakethe yasolwandle.
Kodwa izimpi zamanani aziyona ikhambi elihlala isikhathi eside nganoma yisiphi isikhathi. Izinqubomgomo zokushintsha kwamanani kanye nezinqubomgomo zokuthobela imithetho yemakethe azikwazi ukusiza izinkampani ukuthi ziqhubeke nentuthuko yazo futhi zithole indawo yokuhlala unomphela emakethe; okuwukuphela kwendlela eyisisekelo yokukhuthazela emakethe ukuthola izindlela zokugcina nokuthuthukisa amazinga esevisi nokuthuthukisa amakhono azo ebhizinisi.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Septhemba-22-2022
