Kusukela lolu bhubhane, imboni yezohwebo kanye nemboni yezokuthutha bekulokhu kunesiphithiphithi. Eminyakeni emibili edlule, imithwalo yasolwandle yanda, futhi manje ibonakala ingena "inani elivamile" leminyaka emibili edlule, kodwa ingabe imakethe nayo ingabuyela kokujwayelekile?
Idatha
Uhlelo lwakamuva lwezinkomba zezimpahla ezine ezinkulu emhlabeni wonke luqhubekile nokwehla kakhulu:
-I-Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) yema kumaphuzu we-2562.12, phansi kwe-285.5. amaphuzu kusukela ngesonto eledlule, ukwehla kwamasonto onke kwe-10.0%, futhi kwehle amasonto angu-13 alandelanayo. Yehle ngo-43.9% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule.
-I-Delury's World Container Freight Index (WCI) yehle amasonto angu-28 elandelana, noshicilelo lwakamuva lwehle ngo-5% lwaya ku-US$5,378.68 i-FEU ngayinye.
-I-Baltic Freight Index (FBX) Global Composite Index in US$4,862/FEU, yehle ngo-8% masonto onke.
-I-Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) ye-Ningbo Shipping Exchange ivaliwe kumaphuzu angu-1,910.9, phansi ngamaphesenti angu-11.6 kusukela ngesonto eledlule.
Ukukhishwa kwakamuva kwe-SCFI (9.9) kuqhubekile nokubona ukwehla kuwo wonke amanani amakhulu okuthumela.
-Imizila yaseNyakatho Melika: ukusebenza kwemakethe yezokuthutha yehlulekile ukuba ngcono, izisekelo zokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo zibuthakathaka, okuholela ekutheni imakethe iqhubeke nokwehla kwezinga lempahla.
-Amanani ase-US West ehle afinyelela ku-3,484/FEU esuka ku-$3,959 ngesonto eledlule, ukwehla kwamasonto onke ngama-$475 noma u-12.0%, amanani e-US West afinyelela ezingeni eliphansi elisha kusukela ngo-August 2020.
-Amazinga e-US East ehlele ku-$7,767/FEU esuka ku-$8,318 ngesonto eledlule, ehle ngo-$551, noma ngamaphesenti angu-6.6, masonto onke.
Izizathu
Phakathi nalolu bhubhane, amaketanga okuhlinzeka aphazamiseka futhi izinto ezithile zanqanyulwa kwamanye amazwe, okuholele “ekuqubukeni kwegagasi” emazweni amaningi, okuholele ezindlekweni zokuthutha eziphakeme ngendlela engavamile ngonyaka odlule.
Kulo nyaka, izingcindezi zokwehla kwamandla emali kwezomnotho emhlabeni wonke kanye nesidingo esiphansi kwenze kwaba nzima ukugaya amasheya ebekade eqoqwe emakethe, okubangele ukuthi abangenisa impahla emazweni aseYurophu nase-United States banciphise noma bakhansele ama-oda wezimpahla, futhi “ukushoda kwama-oda” kubhebhetheka emhlabeni wonke.
UDing Chun, uprofesa e-Institute of World Economics, School of Economics, eNyuvesi yaseFudan: “Ukwehla kwamanani emali kubangelwa ngokuyinhloko izinga eliphezulu lokwehla kwamandla emali eYurophu nase-United States, elihlanganiswe nezingxabano zezwe, izinkinga zamandla nezifo eziwumshayabhuqe, okuye kwabangela ukuncipha okukhulu kwesidingo semikhumbi.”
U-Kang Shuchun, oyi-CEO ye-China International Shipping Network: "Ukungalingani phakathi kokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo kuholele ekwehleni kwamanani okuthumela ngemikhumbi."
Umthelela
Ezinkampanini zokuthutha:bebhekene nengcindezi “yokuxoxisana” ngamanani ezinkontileka, futhi bathi bathole izicelo kubanikazi bezimpahla zokwehlisa amanani enkontileka.
Kumabhizinisi asekhaya:UXu Kai, oyisikhulu sezokwazisa eShanghai International Shipping Research Center, utshele iGlobal Times ukuthi ukholelwa ukuthi amanani emikhumbi aphakeme ngendlela engavamile ngonyaka odlule abengajwayelekile, kanti ukwehla okushesha kakhulu kulo nyaka bekungajwayelekile kakhulu, futhi kufanele kube ukusabela okweqile kwezinkampani zemikhumbi ekushintsheni kwemakethe. Ukuze kugcinwe amanani okulayishwa kwempahla, izinkampani zemikhumbi zizama ukusebenzisa amanani ezimpahla njengenzuzo yokukhulisa isidingo. Umnyombo wokwehla kwesidingo sezokuthutha ezimakethe ukuncipha kwesidingo sezohwebo, futhi isu lokusebenzisa ukwehlisa amanani ngeke lilethe isidingo esisha, kodwa lizoholela ekuqhudelaneni okunonya nokuphazamiseka emakethe yasolwandle.
Okokuthunyelwa:Inani elikhulu lemikhumbi emisha eyethulwe imidondoshiya yemikhumbi lenyuse igebe phakathi kokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa. UKang Shuchun uthe amanani ezimpahla aphakeme ngendlela engavamile ngonyaka odlule enza ukuthi izinkampani eziningi zemikhumbi zithole imali eningi, kanti ezinye izinkampani ezinkulu zemikhumbi zifaka inzuzo yazo ekwakhiweni kwemikhumbi okusha, kanti ngaphambi kwalolu bhubhane, umthamo wemikhumbi yomhlaba wonke wawuvele uphezulu kunomthamo. I-Wall Street Journal icaphune uBraemar, onguchwepheshe wezamandla nemikhumbi, ethi kuzokwethulwa uchungechunge lwemikhumbi emisha eminyakeni emibili ezayo nokuthi izinga lokukhula kwemikhumbi kulindeleke ukuthi lidlule ngamaphesenti angu-9 ngonyaka ozayo nango-2024, kanti izinga lokukhula konyaka nonyaka levolumu yomthwalo wamabhokisi lizoshintsha libe libi ngo-2023, okuzokwandisa ukungalingani emhlabeni jikelele.
Isiphetho
Ingqikithi yesidingo sezokuthutha ezimakethe esintekenteke siwukuncipha kwesidingo sohwebo, ukusebenzisa isu lokunciphisa amanani ngeke kulethe isidingo esisha, kodwa kuzoholela ekuqhudelaneni okunonya futhi kuphazamise ukuhleleka kwemakethe yasolwandle.
Kodwa izimpi zamanani azisona isixazululo esimeme nganoma yisiphi isikhathi. Izinqubomgomo zokushintsha amanani kanye nezinqubomgomo zokuthobela izimakethe azikwazi ukusiza izinkampani ukuthi ziqhubeke nokuthuthuka futhi zithole indawo ehlala njalo emakethe; okuwukuphela kwendlela eyisisekelo yokubekezela emakethe ukuthola izindlela zokugcina nokuthuthukisa amazinga esevisi kanye nokuthuthukisa amakhono abo ebhizinisi.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-22-2022
